Saturday, December 20, 2008

Johnson's batting

I've only seen Johnson bat once (at the Gabba against NZ), and he looked very good. Looking through his Test scores to date, he's only been dismissed in single figures in a quarter of his innings. If you assume an exponential distribution of scores, that is consistent with an average of about 35. Currently he's averaging low 20's.

So, there are two main possibilities — he's been lucky to make so many starts, or he's been unlucky to get out for 20odd so often. Batting at number 10 probably isn't helping him.

I'd like to see him moved up to number 8. At worst, he'll be about as good as Lee. At best, I think he could be a very good bowling all-rounder.

Sorry for the lack of posting lately. I'm trying to finish off my Masters thesis (transferred down to PhD), I will start a proper job in February, and I'm spending much of my spare time playing and studying chess.

Johnson's technique looks very sound, solid. I can't believe Krejza has a higher position, but maybe Ponting & Cp know something we don't.
Question: Among bowlers is Johnson's single digit dismissals percentage the best?
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

A Happy New Year to you and all the best for your thesis.
New year greetings to you David.

Mitch deserves a promotion up the least a spot.
Bit irrelevant to this article, but I was reading your features on extended batting and bowling averages ( and I was wondering how they account for debuting players or players who have played very few matches. For example, after his century at the MCG, Jean-Paul Duminy has a batting average of 108.50. How is this dealt with? Also, how does this method work if bowling averages are based on batting averages which are based on bowling averages (Not very succinctly put but I'm sure you understand)?
Hey phobos. I use career averages for those. So if I were to update the tables today, anyone who dismissed Duminy would get a little boost to his bowling average. But it'll fix itself once Duminy's average drops.

I haven't tried doing the second iteration - take the adjusted averages and then weight wickets and runs by them, etc. It'd take a bit of care - when doing the bowlers, you'd have to adjust both their wickets and their runs conceded, otherwise you'll just go back to low-scoring eras having low averages.

It's something I have in the back of my mind. If I get solidly back into cricket stats I'll do it eventually, but probably not in the short term.
I think Johnson will end up batting at 8 in ODIs and Tests. Good enough to score a ton if luck goes his way on a good deck.

He played some good innings this summer and he'll improve some more over the next few seasons.

He has a good eye and solid technique I guess it'll come down to how he divides up his practice.

Every hour spent batting is less time working on his bowling and vice versa. It's a tough job being an all rounder, especially on a losing team.

Still, I have high hopes.
Great stuff, and proven correct. Look forward to more.
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