tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22713811.post1977758530389490205..comments2023-05-18T10:02:56.564+02:00Comments on Pappus' plane - cricket stats: Slumps - Is there a problem or is he just unlucky?David Barryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08378763233797445502noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22713811.post-29579709533724899272008-04-08T14:15:00.000+02:002008-04-08T14:15:00.000+02:00Salutations Professori! I'm going to take a long t...Salutations Professori! I'm going to take a long time digesting that.<BR/><BR/>David, the spin-off since my first visit to your blog has been that I went out and got a stats textbook to begin all over again.<BR/><BR/>Reading some online tuts as well.<BR/><BR/>I'm not going to pretend I have understood it all...but I'm getting the idea.<BR/><BR/>Thanks.Soulberryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15830619858224129215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22713811.post-13837498387377962242008-04-06T10:43:00.000+02:002008-04-06T10:43:00.000+02:00Thanks Arjwiz.I'll just add a bit more on why I th...Thanks Arjwiz.<BR/><BR/>I'll just add a bit more on why I think that most of the time, you'd go with your gut on selection rather than this algorithm. Take Sachin Tendulkar. He recently went over a year without scoring a century. It was a z = -2,2 slump and p = 0,2. So only one in five players would go through a slump that bad.<BR/><BR/>But of course you'll keep picking Tendulkar, because you know he's a great batsman and he'll start scoring runs again. And that's what happened.<BR/><BR/>(Another technical point: The value of p can be quite sensitive to the career average. Tendulkar went from 57 before the slump to 25 in it, and you get p = 0,2. If he'd gone from 50 to 25, it would have been p = 0,8.<BR/><BR/>There's also a problem that at z = -2,2, we're looking at around the sort of slump where my numbers don't work so well.)David Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08378763233797445502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22713811.post-63542005597374335952008-04-06T10:16:00.000+02:002008-04-06T10:16:00.000+02:00Wow, David! This seems like a hell of a post! I sh...Wow, David! This seems like a hell of a post! I shall surely read it carefully when i can since it might take some time to sink in for people who are new to your blog!<BR/><BR/>(And guys, if you are new, trust me - this is a great blog if you understand how to use it best!)Arjunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03477098595718141900noreply@blogger.com